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ISO IEC-31010-2019 pdf free download

ISO IEC-31010-2019 pdf free download.Risk management – Risk assessment techniques.
4 Core concepts
4.1 Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a term which embraces many underlying concepts. Many attempts have been made, and continue to be developed, to categorize types of uncertainty including:
• uncertainty which recognizes the intrinsic variability of some phenomena, and that cannot be reduced by further research; for example, throwing dice (sometimes referred to as aleatory uncertainty):
• uncertainty which generally results from a lack of knowledge and that therefore can be reduced by gathering more data, by refining models, improving sampling techniques, etc. (sometimes referred to as epistemic uncertainty).
Other commonly recognized forms of uncertainty include:
• linguistic uncertainty, which recognizes the vagueness and ambiguity inherent in spoken languages:
• decision uncertainty, which has particular relevance to risk management strategies, and which identifies uncertainty associated with value systems, professional judgement. company values and societal norms.
Examples of uncertainty include:
• uncertainty as to the truth of assumptions, including presumptions about how people or systems might behave:
• variability in the parameters on which a decision is to be based:
• uncertainty in the validity or accuracy of models which have been established to make predictions about the future;
• events (including changes in circumstances or conditions) whose occurrence, character or consequences are uncertain;
• uncertainty associated with disruptive events;
• the uncertain outcomes of systemic issues, such as shortages of competent staff, that can have wide ranging impacts which cannot be clearly defined:
• lack of knowledge which arises when uncertainty is recognized but not fully understood;
• unpredictability:
• uncertainty arising from the limitations of the human mind, for example in understanding complex data, predicting situations with long-term consequences or making bias-free judgments.
Not all uncertainty is able to be understood and the significance of uncertainty might be hard or impossible to define or influence. However, a recognition that uncertainty exists in a specific context enables early warning systems to be put in place to detect change in a proactive and timely manner and make arrangements to build resilience to cope with unexpected circumstances.
4.2 Risk
Risk includes the effects of any of the forms of uncertainty described in 4.1 on objectives. The uncertainty may lead to positive or negative consequences or both.
Risk is often described In terms of risk sources, potential events, their consequences and their likelihoods. An event can have multiple causes and lead to multiple consequences. Consequences can have a number of discrete values, be continuous variables or be unknown. Consequences may not be discernible or measurable at first, but may accumulate over time. Sources of risk can include inherent variability, or uncertainties related to a range of factors including human behaviour and organizational structures or societal influences for which it can be difficult to predict any particular event that might occur. It follows that risk cannot always be tabulated easily as a set of events, their consequences and their likelihoods.
Risk assessment techniques aim to help people understand uncertainty and the associated risk in this broad, complex and diverse context, for the purpose of supporting better-informed decisions and actions.
5 Uses of risk assessment techniques
The techniques described in this document provide a means to improve understanding of uncertainty and its implications for decisions and actions.
ISO 31000 describes principles for managing risk and the foundations and organizational arrangements that enable risk to be managed. It specifies a process that enables risk to be recognized, understood and modified as necessary, according to criteria that are established as part of the process. Risk assessment techniques can be applied within this structured approach which involves establishing context, assessing risk and treating risk, along with ongoing monitoring, review, communication and consultation, recording and reporting. This process is illustrated in Figure A.1 which also shows examples of where within the process techniques can be applied.ISO IEC-31010 pdf download.

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